The end of the yearlong farm protests on Delhi’s borders has thrown Punjab politics into turmoil on the eve of a crucial Assembly election. It is ironic really that a moment which marks a huge victory for agitating farmers across northwest India could well sour upcoming polls in what was after all the hub for mobilisation and support of an unrest that brought the Modi government to its knees.
A bitter, divisive four-way contest looms ahead amid predictions of a hung Assembly and consequent political instability. Nothing could be more worrisome, and tragic, than this kind of uncertainty. Punjab is a border state and not so long ago was devastated by militancy and separatist violence. It would be unfortunate indeed if cut-throat political competitiveness and an acrimonious chase for power rips the hard-won peace of the past three decades.
There have been several significant developments after agitating farmers wound their way back home that have set off alarm bells. One is the newly minted poll alliance between ousted Congress chief minister Amarinder Singh’s Punjab Loktantrik Congress and the BJP.
The other is the manner in which leaders of the farm protests are flexing their muscles. They seem to be in agitation mode still and their aggressive mood is threatening to disrupt normal life in many parts of the state. “They won a huge victory by getting the Modi government to repeal the unpopular farm laws. But there’s a disturbing fallout. They have tasted blood and now want to assert themselves in Punjab even on issues that don’t concern farmers,” said a senior political leader.
First, the new alliance between Amarinder Singh and the BJP. Although widely expected, few took it as serious competition However, recent events suggest that the BJP is desperate to take a deep plunge into Punjab politics.
No longer content to be a junior partner to long-term ally Akali Dal, it hopes to piggyback on Amarinder Singh to break into Punjab as a player. Because of its traditionally small presence, restricted to a few urban pockets, it is pursuing instant growth by poaching on other parties. One major catch was Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa, recently of the Akali Dal. He has floated his own party and is all set to join the Amarinder Singh-BJP alliance.
Reports from Punjab indicate that the BJP is aggressively pursuing leaders of other parties as well, both Congress and Aam Aadmi Party. The Congress is said to be particularly vulnerable as its brand value is fast diminishing because of internal leadership conflicts.
All this has muddied the waters in Punjab with a four-cornered contest in the offing. At the very least, this new alliance will cut into votes of the Congress and AAP, leaving the state with a badly hung Assembly in the throes of horse-trading.
One may say that all’s fair in war and politics. However, what has raised red flags is an emerging urban-rural rift which the new alliance hopes to capitalise on. Urban voters, particularly the Hindus, form the BJP’s traditional support pool. Its alliance with the Akali Dal was so successful because the BJP brought in the urban Hindu vote and the Akalis netted the rural Jat Sikh vote.
In 2017, large swathes of these vote-banks shifted loyalty to the Congress, giving the party a decisive majority in the state after a gap of a decade. The BJP is focused on winning back its urban vote by capitalising on the tensions that are creeping in after the return of the leaders of the farmer unions that spearheaded the protests in Delhi against the Modi government’s controversial agricultural laws.
In recent days, the state has been wracked by protests and blockades in different areas with union leaders taking up cudgels on various issues. For instance, many toll roads have been blocked by protesting farmers demanding a roll back of the recent hike in toll tax.
A protest that started out in the Malwa region led by Bharatiya Kisan Union leader Joginder Singh Ugrahan is rapidly spreading to other parts of Punjab and disrupting traffic. A businessman from Amritsar complained that he was forced to take a one-and-a-half-hour detour on the way back from Pathankot because the last toll barrier before Amritsar was blocked by protestors.
Farmers unions have also jumped into an ongoing agitation by ad hoc National Health Mission workers who are demanding regularisation of their jobs. These workers were hired as a temporary measure at the peak of the Covid epidemic to help with the delivery of newborns. They now want to be made permanent government employees.
Interestingly, some farmer unions have decided to pick up their cause although it has nothing to do with agriculture. They have been blocking main highways and flyways. One major route that was recently blocked was the road that leads to Chandigarh airport from Mohali.
Reports like these are fanning anxiety about the role these farmer unions see for themselves in Punjab. Will they take the political plunge? Or will they fashion themselves into a powerful lobby to influence government policies and administrative decisions?
These are worrying concerns for urban voters. Urban Punjabis are largely small traders, businessmen and industrialists. They fear political instability and street protests more than anything.
It is this fear that is fuelling the beginnings of an urban-rural divide which will ultimately threaten the fragile post-militancy peace in Punjab. Nothing can be worse for the state or for the nation for that matter.
The elections in Punjab are getting murky but no political party seems capable or even interested in reversing the trend of a poll that could have geopolitical and strategic implications in the long run.
The writer is a veteran journalist and political commentator. Views expressed are personal.
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