Post the Russian Duma authorising the use of force by Russia in the Donbas region of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced special military operations in Ukraine on 24 February to defend the Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk and has vowed retaliation against those who interfere.
Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told media that President Putin has “received letters of appeal from the head of the Luhansk People’s Republic Leonid Pasechnik and the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic Denis Pushilin” for military assistance. According to Peskov, the two heads of the separatist regions believe there are “threats from Kyiv” against citizens in Donetsk and Luhansk. Concurrently, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby quoted US intelligence to say that more Russian military forces have entered the two regions.
Ukraine’s defence and banking systems have suffered cyberattacks. Russia has begun exercising with nuclear weapons and President Putin has said, “Weapons without parallel in the world are being put on combat duty.” This may include hypersonic missiles — both nuclear and non-nuclear. The latest is that Russia has struck Ukrainian airbases and rendered Ukraine's air defence ineffective.
The genesis of both the Russian annexation of Crimea and the present Ukraine crisis lies in the US-NATO “willfully” backtracking on their promise made at the time of the breakup of the Soviet Union that NATO will not expand in eastern Europe. Moreover, Ukraine shut off freshwater from the North Crimean Canal to Crimea in 2014. Since then, Crimea has suffered untold hardships, particularly in the city of Mariupol. Trade has virtually come to a standstill. Besides, Ukraine has imposed martial law on all 10 border regions around the Azov Sea.
The Russian constitution stipulates the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions as “at the time when they were part of Ukraine”. If Putin takes the regions as per their then borders, it will deny Ukraine access to the Sea of Azov, which would strengthen Russia’s primacy in the Black Sea, enhance the security of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and open land link from mainland Russia to the Sevastopol Port in Crimea, which is Russia’s only warm-water port. Crimea will get fresh water from the North Crimean Canal denied to it since 2014 and trade will open up in Crimea.
Ukraine has declared a 30-day state of emergency and announced compulsory military service for all men of fighting age. The AUKUS countries (Australia, Britain, Japan and the US) have sanctioned Russia and the breakaway republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. Ukraine has also sanctioned 351 Russians, including lawmakers who supported recognising the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine and the deployment of Russian troops there. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is to hold its second emergency meeting on Ukraine in the next three days. Russia currently holds the rotating presidency of the UNSC.
On 23 February, Russia’s leading newspaper Kommersant headlined: “Russian President Vladimir Putin will receive India's adversary and China's ally, Prime Minister of Pakistan — Imran Khan”. Some are viewing this as Moscow pressuring New Delhi and jockeying for India to take its side over Ukraine, but this is really not the case. In fact, some are calling the crisis “Russia’s Bangladesh moment”. But pushed to the wall, Putin was left with no option with the West outrightly rejecting every Russian security concern because of the US and NATO arming Ukraine and NATO deployments in Eastern Europe.
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Washington wants New Delhi to take its side on the Ukraine crisis. Surprisingly, some Indian scholars including veterans want India to take a clear side on Ukraine, which is preposterous. With escalating violence in Ukraine, there is every possibility that the Western dirty tricks department will get energised directly or through the Ukrainian government. Despite adequate indications, India was late in beginning to evacuate 20,000 Indian students studying in Ukraine with only an odd commercial flight having brought the first lot back home. Air India was to run three flights per week to Kyiv but now all flights are halted. It is quite possible that Indian students and Indian nationals could be attacked in Ukraine to put the blame on the Russians. Even an Indian commercial flight could be hit, blaming it on a Russian missile to force India to side with the US.
Prudence demands that India must continue to maintain its strategic autonomy over the Ukraine crisis. Taking sides will only harm India’s national interests.
The author is a veteran of the Indian Army. Views expressed are personal.
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